#counterfactual reasoning

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A bright whitewashed stone tide house with a brass float part-way up a rising tide inside a stilling well, its wire still taking up over a large brass pulley and the counterweight still descending

Attribution: Tying One Event to a Changing Climate

Event attribution answers a narrower question than the one usually asked of it. The counterfactual is modelled rather than remembered, the risk ratio is a population quantity, and confidence collapses at the convective scale.

By Brecht Corbeel · August 9, 2026 · 16 min read

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